Wednesday, March 08, 2006

All Good Poker Players

There are good poker players, there are lucky poker players and there are other poker players. Just what does it take to make a good poker player?

Some people would argue that experience is everything and luck has nothing to do with consistently winning at the online poker tables. I say you need a good helping of both, plus a thorough understanding of math. No one can expect to win every single game, so work on the odds.

What are the odds of winning in an online poker room with 10 players? Statistically, you have a 10-1 chance. But that’s not a clear cut and dry way to look at it. If you take into account each variable element, the odds can change dramatically at every turn of the cards.

Let’s say one player folds at the ‘turn’. This reduces the odds of winning to 9-1, although it has also slightly reduced the potential size of the pot. Next, if two further players fold at the final turn card, the ‘river’, this has further reduced the odds to 7-1.

During the final stages of the game, say another 3 player’s fold, which in turn makes the odds look much more attractive at 4-1. At this stage, the only thing keeping you from winning the hand and taking the pot is the uncertainty of the value of your opponent’s hands. This element is then judged against the value of your own hand.

If you have a strong hand, you have nothing to worry about. But if it’s mediocre, you’ll have to decide whether to pile in the chips or fold and cut your losses. Experience is likely to play a part in the ultimate decision, but there’s just one other hidden element to take into consideration.

Could anyone left playing at the table be cheating? Is anyone using a sophisticated software program, which allows them to see the cards before they are dealt? And if they are, how would you know? The simple is you wouldn’t.

If one of your opponents is winning hand after hand, are you going to accuse them of cheating? In the days of the wild-west someone would not only take great offence to such an allegation, they’d be drawing their Buntline Special to settle the argument.

Now if you consider that online poker is just another technological advancement in gaming software, it’s quite conceivable that the same technology could be used to someone else’s advantage through the process of reverse engineering. Add in a Random Number Generator and hey presto! You’ve just increased your odds of winning 10 fold.

No amount of calculations is going to help in this worse case scenario. But there will always be those who refuse to believe that any effective software program could possibly exist.

If you’re an online poker player who counts on your own knowledge and experience of the game, does the mathematical calculations and keeps records of wins and losses, it might just be a good idea to start watching your opponents a little closer. And never under estimate man’s overwhelming desire for money.

All poker players are in it to win, but all good poker players need to stay one step ahead.

Craig Richards is a keen poker player and product developer.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home